23 Climate Action Future-Looking Maps and Future-Proof Strategies Geospatial analysis is also guiding the biggest mitigation project of all. In 2022, the US Army Corps of Engineers unveiled a proposal to build movable sea gates—designed to protect against once-in-a-hundred-year storms—across the mouths of major bays and inlets along New York Harbor. The plan—which also calls for more than 30 miles of landbased levees and sea walls and nature-based solutions such as wetland restoration and shorelines built out of sand, oyster shells, and plants—is estimated to cost $52.6 billion. But a geospatial cost-benefit analysis—a central tool for the corps—showed that without the protections, average annual damages to the region would amount to $5.1 billion by 2030 and $13.7 billion by the end of the century. Conversely, the corps estimates its efforts would generate a net benefit of $3.7 billion each year over the next 50 years. In meetings with community members and environmental groups, maps that show the benefits, drawbacks, and uncertainties of the corps’s plan have been helping the corps incorporate public feedback into its analyses. Once the plans are finalized, and if Congress approves them, construction could begin in 2030 and end by 2044, with some projects completed sooner. Even this may not be enough, according to some experts, who argue that the government will likely need to buy out and relocate residents in at-risk areas. In light of rising seas, New York City should create a “predictable, community-informed buyout program” that prioritizes individuals in areas at the highest risk, says a report published in December 2022 by actuarial consultancy Milliman and the nonprofit Rebuild by Design. The report’s authors recommend that New York invest massively to protect shoreline communities and build affordable housing in inland neighborhoods, since the areas most vulnerable to floods are home to people of color in lowincome communities. “It is important to think about not only who is being impacted by climate change now, but who will be impacted as existing climate pressures worsen,” said Molly Barth, a GIS consultant at Milliman, in a statement. “Using geospatial and demographic data, municipalities can better understand the risk to local populations and use that data to make more informed community decisions.” To help New Yorkers understand and prepare for flooding risk, the city has created three rainfall-based flooding maps. The maps show moderate stormwater flooding scenarios under current and future sea level rise conditions, as well as an extreme stormwater flooding scenario under future conditions. The NYC Flood Hazard Mapper provides a comprehensive overview of the coastal flood hazards that threaten the city today, as well as showing how these flood hazards are likely to increase in the future with climate change.
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