162 delivers insights to humanitarian groups such as the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and the World Food Programme. Drilling into the Details Location-based analysis also revealed interesting trends in Afghanistan’s water usage and poppy production. Water scarcity is a cause for concern in the desert region, with the potential for widespread displacement of people if groundwater is depleted. Alcis uncovered a trend of farmers using solar-powered pumps to pull water from the aquifer beneath the desert in southwest corner of the country, with more than 100,000 reservoirs popping up since 2022. “This is just one house pulling water to irrigate those crops,” Brittan said, pointing at the features on a map. “The dark green is opium poppy; this is wheat.” Data showed that many of the farmers do not own the land. So, Alcis determined the most marginalized are growing poppy there and pulling water they need now but without long-term stewardship of the land. For its water tracking effort, Alcis has been mapping the causes and effects. Drought conditions have lowered the water table, forcing subsistence farmers to dig deeper. Conflicts over water cross over into Iran as well, erupting in violence among those living near the border. “If there’s canal runoff here, with agricultural productivity increases, you’re going to have downstream consequences on people here,” Brittan said, pointing at the map. “What happens when the water goes dry? Nearly two million people will be on the move.” This ability to surface tipping points for aid organizations helps them anticipate changing needs. When weather patterns change or reports come in about wells going dry, they can see the wider implications that Alcis has mapped. Informing Policies to Help People David Mansfield, a frequent collaborator with Alcis, provided on-the-ground awareness of current conditions in Afghanistan. He conducted more than 300 interviews with farmers, drug producers, and drug traffickers over a span of four months. This data was added to the map, revealing an 85 percent reduction in poppy production across the country in 2023. Analysis also found the price of opium has increased 10 times since the ban, and many farmers are sitting on an inventory of opium. Alcis calculated a total stockpile of opium that exceeds 13,000 tons. “From a global war on drugs narrative, there’s an extraordinary story there about curtailing production,” Brittan said. “However, the landowners who have the inventory and are politically connected are the ones who benefit. The landpoor and sharecroppers are missing out. Many of them have left the country already.” Brittan recently presented a report about the 2024 opium season in Afghanistan to the UK government and other partners. “We went into who are getting away with growing it, who have lost out, and what that means for food security and livelihoods,” Brittan said. “Additionally, we looked into the threat that the drugs being produced would have on drugconsuming nations.” Expanding Awareness Elsewhere The work that Alcis is doing in Afghanistan has led to other engagements. “It has helped us prove our methods and take them to other countries,” Brittan said. The company recently completed an analysis of migration out of Türkiye, Libya, and Egypt into Europe. Working on food insecurity in Uganda, in a region where more than 20 percent of the people eat less than one meal a day, Alcis analysts mapped where people live. They then worked to find the most vulnerable among them for distribution of food during the hungry season. Other ongoing work helps health organizations reach people in remote regions with vaccines.
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