4 The Power of Where High suitability Low suitability Wheat-growing suitability in 1970 much warmer by 2050, it’s hard to fathom what that means in terms of the impacts to agriculture. The predictive maps seen here show the northward shift of suitable wheat-growing areas in North America by 2050, a sober assessment of the potential effects of climate change, among many other impacts. The maps show that areas for highest wheat suitability (dark green) will shift dramatically, according to the latest climate and cropland forecasts. Pondering these challenges, I think of the wisdom of Mario Palma, the great population statistician from Mexico, who wrote, “The lack of understanding of our own reality—be it social or economic, natural or environmental—is one of the great risks that every society faces.” But Palma concluded that we can overcome that risk through the intervention of institutions that produce statistical and geographical information. For nearly six decades, I’ve kept abreast of the work of colleagues and users in the areas of geographic information, analysis, and visualization. As a result, I see a lot of data about the health of our planet. What I’ve seen lately in various presentations, customer briefings, and forecasts concerns me deeply. All indicators show us heading in a direction that cannot be sustained without greater human intervention to address existential challenges, such as collapsing ecosystems, loss of biodiversity, extreme weather, and war or conflict. Overcoming these problems will require a level of cooperation and collaboration beyond any we’ve seen in human history. For example, consider these comparative maps of wheat-growing suitability. When we read forecasts that North America could grow The predictive model on these two pages shows areas historically suitable for wheat growing (this page) moving northward to areas suitable for wheat growing by 2050 (facing page), if no climate change polices are rapidly adopted. To reach this conclusion, analysts looked at two complex datasets: NASA historical cropland data with over 20 bioclimatic and topographic layers and 2050 RCP (representative concentration pathways) 8.5 climate data. RCP 8.5 is a widely accepted climate change scenario that assumes a trajectory of warming without human intervention. Minneapolis Fargo Calgary Spokane Winnipeg Regina Columbus Detroit Toronto Syracuse Montreal Madison Des Moines Sioux Falls
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