Chapter 01: What Is the Geographic Approach? 5 These predictive maps show that areas for highest wheat suitability (dark green) will have shifted dramatically in the period from present day to 2050 according to climate and cropland data from the World Terrestrial Ecosystems 2050, a joint effort of United Nations climate group, Esri, and historical records from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Analysts looked at two complex data sets: NASA historical cropland data with over 20 bioclimatic and topographic layers; and 2050 RCP 8.5 climate data. The widely accepted climate change scenario based on this data assumes a trajectory of warming that will occur if no climate change polices are adopted. Using correlative GIS machine learning to study wheat suitability, the model intrinsically learns the relationship between climate and wheat presence to predict wheat suitability on a global scale. The results show that the areas of best suitability shifting dramatically to more extreme latitudes. Today, most of the world’s wheat is grown between the latitudes of 45 and 57 °N. Most wheat-cultivating regions of the world will experience a decrease in wheat suitability. Areas beyond approximately 55 ° N may experience increased wheat suitability by 2050. Predictive Crop Modeling Using the geographic approach to understand the threat climate change poses to food security. The predicted latitudinal shifts are derived from the summation of predictive suitability values within each degree of latitude. Current Future Predicted wheat-growing suitability in 2050 The irony is that we are capable of reaching agreement about the reality of our plight. At its core, the problem Palma describes revolves around information—the kind of information that the GIS user community compiles and addresses every day. The science of geography—the study of Earth’s physical, biological, economic, and cultural features and their interactions—helps us see the world as a single ecosystem. It serves as a kind of language for organizing all the related factors and bringing them together. This is the work of illuminating patterns, discovering relationships, and studying and modeling everything that can be modeled in a geographic context. The predicted latitudinal shifts for optimal wheat growing are derived from the summation of predictive suitability values within each degree of latitude. Green Bay Spokane Portland Edmonton Duluth Winnipeg Regina Detroit Ottawa Quebec City
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