Creating the World We Want to See MAPPING THE NATION Climate Action Equity and Social Justice Environment Conservation Humanitarian Assistance Public Safety Smart Planning Infrastructure Sustainability
Esri Press, 380 New York Street, Redlands, California 92373-8100 Copyright © 2024 Esri All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. The information contained in this document is the exclusive property of Esri or its licensors. This work is protected under United States copyright law and other international copyright treaties and conventions. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage or retrieval system, except as expressly permitted in writing by Esri. All requests should be sent to Attention: Director, Contracts and Legal Department, Esri, 380 New York Street, Redlands, California 92373-8100, USA. The information contained in this document is subject to change without notice. US Government Restricted/Limited Rights: Any software, documentation, and/or data delivered hereunder is subject to the terms of the License Agreement. The commercial license rights in the License Agreement strictly govern Licensee’s use, reproduction, or disclosure of the software, data, and documentation. In no event shall the US Government acquire greater than RESTRICTED/ LIMITED RIGHTS. At a minimum, use, duplication, or disclosure by the US Government is subject to restrictions as set forth in FAR §52.227-14 Alternates I, II, and III (DEC 2007); FAR §52.227-19(b) (DEC 2007) and/or FAR §12.211/12.212 (Commercial Technical Data/Computer Software); and DFARS §252.227-7015 (DEC 2011) (Technical Data–Commercial Items) and/or DFARS §227.7202 (Commercial Computer Software and Commercial Computer Software Documentation), as applicable. Contractor/Manufacturer is Esri, 380 New York Street, Redlands, California 92373-8100, USA. Esri products or services referenced in this publication are trademarks, service marks, or registered marks of Esri in the United States, the European Community, or certain other jurisdictions. To learn more about Esri marks, go to: links.esri.com/ EsriProductNamingGuide. Other companies and products or services mentioned herein may be trademarks, service marks, or registered marks of their respective mark owners. For purchasing and distribution options (both domestic and international), please visit esripress.esri.com.
Contents Foreword | 1 Introduction | 3 Climate Action | 5 In Florida, Interactive Maps Tell the Story of Modern Risk Mitigation | 6 Mapping LA’s Flood Risk Reveals Hidden Harm in Vulnerable Communities | 10 To Protect Trees, Atlanta Nonprofit Maps and Measures Benefits | 16 NYC: Few Cities Are Doing More to Map and Respond to Rising Waters | 20 To Build a New Pollution Map, the US Turned to Thousands of Volunteers | 24 Equity and Social Justice | 31 Vision Zero: Maps Fuel Funding for Equitable Traffic Safety in Louisville | 32 How Unjust Is Your Environment? The CDC’s New Map Will Show You | 36 The NAACP Sees Digital Maps as Tools for Modern Civil Rights Action | 40 LA County Documents and Addresses Racial Disparities Using GIS Technology | 44 The History of Justice, Race, and Equity—Educators Create Maps to Foster Unity | 48 Environment | 53 NYC: The Economic Value of Parks | 54 LA County Maps Equitable Access to Nature, Remediates Degraded Lands | 58 Saving Canada’s Peatlands to Help Stabilize the Climate | 62 Wisconsin: Using Maps to Tackle 'Forever Chemicals' | 66 Drone Monitoring Tackles Growing Algae Threat to Lake Tahoe | 70 Conservation | 75 Indigenous Knowledge Captured on Maps Aims to Protect Congo Basin Diversity | 76 National Audubon Society Maps the Wondrous Routes of Bird Migration | 80 Mapping a Nature-Based Solution to HumanElephant Conflict | 84 How Do You Help Rhinos Thrive in the Wild? Give Rangers a Data Collection App | 88 Jaguar Conservation: Smart Maps Guide Ecosystem Revitalization in Argentina | 92 Humanitarian Assistance | 97 "Thirteen Lives": How the Thai Cave Rescue Exemplifies Collaborative Action | 98 Assessing the Needs of the World’s Most FoodInsecure Countries | 102
Ukraine: The HALO Trust Maps Land Mines and Explosive Remnants of War | 106 When Crisis Ensues, MapAction Volunteers Map the Road to Safety | 110 Sri Lanka: How Geography Shapes Life for Migrants | 114 Public Safety | 119 Portugal Revamps Wildfire Resilience after Devastating Fires | 120 Cobb County Secures World Series with Real-Time Location Technology | 124 Frisco, Texas, Finds Success with a Public Safety Digital Twin | 128 Lasting Lessons in Search and Rescue from Hurricane Ian Response | 132 Fusion Center Concept Evolves with Streamlined Data Sharing | 138 Smart Planning | 143 Digital Twin Provides Clear Picture of Detroit Region’s Revitalization | 144 Can a Historic Kauai, Hawaii, Community Modernize without Losing What Makes It Unique? | 148 Digital Twin Boosts Growth, Sustainability Planning in Maryland County | 152 Inside One of Europe's Largest Urban Developments | 156 Connecticut: How Maps of Past Contamination Focus Redevelopment in Cities | 160 Infrastructure | 165 Vodafone Creates Country-Scale Digital Twins to Engineer Better Networks | 166 In Australia’s Fastest-Growing City, a Digital Twin Guides Rail Expansion | 170 A Digital Twin of Ports and Channels Helps Army Corps Maintain US Waterways | 174 Miami International: Digital Transformation of Airport Inspections | 178 Virginia Ahead of the Curve on Prioritizing Infrastructure | 182 Sustainability | 187 The Mysteries of Bourbon: How Forestry, Mapping Support a Changing Industry | 188 Marking 50 Years, United Arab Emirates Maps Growth and Quality of Life | 192 Largest Organic Co-op Uses Custom Maps to Guide Grazing and Pasture Stewardship | 196 Illinois Utility Transforms Hundreds of Acres into Pollinator Habitat | 200 Starker Forests Documents Workflows for Sustainable Forestry | 204
Foreword Geographic Understanding Creates a Better Future I often say that sustainability starts with geography. Geography holds the key to helping us better understand and manage our world, which faces compounding crises. In fact, I believe our future depends on it. We must be more coordinated and concentrated in taking action where it is needed the most if we are to create a world that is healthy, prosperous, equitable, peaceful, secure, and in balance with nature. In other words, geography will help us ensure a more sustainable future for all. A Foundation for Understanding A geographic approach provides a way of thinking and problem solving that integrates and organizes all relevant information in the crucial context of location. In much the same way that geography integrates the physical, biological, and social sciences, geographic information system (GIS) technology integrates the knowledge that is needed to understand the complex challenges facing our world. GIS provides a means to examine and explore the dimensions of every challenge, prioritizing what to do where and when based on evidence and analysis. With GIS, layers of domain-specific intelligence can be draped over maps. They can be combined and modeled to reveal new relationships and hidden connections across space and time. Leaders make more informed decisions using GIS to see these patterns and trends, model different scenarios, and craft solutions. They use maps to better communicate and collaborate—providing a shared understanding of the issues at hand. With GIS, government agencies, companies, and institutions around the globe are using the power of geography to guide their course toward a better future. Toward a National GIS It is clear that creating a better future requires us to work collaboratively, connecting our organizations to truly understand our world. GIS has become more interconnected than ever before. Systems link organizations and agencies together to share millions of datasets among a diverse set of users. Users with expertise and knowledge use this data and GIS to create billions of maps every day. This has created ripple effects of positive impacts on the world, from biodiversity protection to safer and more inclusive communities. Technological advancements have enhanced the utility of GIS and expanded its impact. The latest GIS-powered solutions thrive on endless data from a growing constellation of Earth-observing satellites and ground-based sensors. The increased number and frequency of observations are now processed using cloud computing and artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance knowledge about our planet in near real time. A greater flow of data between and within organizations has reduced siloed information and broadened interdisciplinary collaboration. A shared map provides the conduit for integrating and exchanging knowledge and information—building a national and global GIS that fosters a shared understanding and allows everyone to chart our progress together. Building Digital Twins With a national GIS, we can truly start to model and understand our world in new ways. Building a GIS-based digital twin of our planet using reality capture and real-time data shows not only what’s happening now but allows us to simulate what might be. A living digital twin tracks everything that moves and changes in the landscape and models performance and stresses on systems. With this GIS-based digital twin, we gain new insight into how every part of a system affects the others, pinpointing problems and addressing challenges as they arise. It fills me with hope to see digital twins and open science used to conserve more land and ocean, to identify inequities, and to address the impacts of climate-related threats. We need more evidence-based guidance to improve the balance on our planet and meet the urgency of the moment. With digital twins, we have an opportunity to advance science at an accelerated pace. Mapping the Nation Within this book are stories that describe the work of technical and scientific experts, civil servants, policymakers, designers, and many more stakeholders who make the world better using GIS. Mapping the Nation: Creating the World We Want to See continues a long series of books that acknowledge the contributions of GIS users by showcasing their work. These stories illustrate how geography and a geographic approach guide important decisions around the globe. We're continuously amazed by the depth of GIS activity and how its use measurably improves organizations and communities. Using GIS, professionals advance science, design with nature in mind, make communities more livable and efficient, improve public safety, secure nations, protect natural spaces, enhance human health, and mitigate social conflicts. Now is the time to strengthen the stewardship of our world. At Esri®, we're dedicated to enhancing knowledge to create the world we all want to see. Sustainability starts with geography. Warm regards, Jack Dangermond 1
2
Despite growing evidence that humankind lives beyond its means, we have easy choices and many chances to create a more sustainable world. The same science, technology, and cultural forces that have led to the success of humans as a species can guide us toward a more balanced and livable planet. Using GIS, we can collectively imagine and design solutions that can be implemented widely. A modern GIS facilitates data collection, analysis, and sharing to achieve coordinated responses. Using these tools, organizations gain an edge on complicated challenges because they can see trouble coming and take action to decisively avoid it. For cities, regions, and nations, these tools provide awareness through maps and dashboards to ensure that everyone can participate in building more sustainable approaches. As organizations that use GIS to address complex problems already know, the science of geography fosters ground truths. By creating a shared picture for everyone involved, it leads to quicker and more decisive action. With the use of GIS, initiatives can be formulated, priorities emerge, and progress can be made. Within this book, you will read of organizations that took a proactive approach to climate action, equity and social justice, the environment, conservation, humanitarian assistance, public safety, smart planning, infrastructure, and sustainability. Through the familiar frame—problem, solution, result—you will learn of organizations and individuals who are making an impact with GIS by applying a geographic approach to their challenges. At Esri, we like to think of GIS as a geospatial nervous system for the planet, one that can help guide an effort such as climate resilience by empowering organizations to take the pulse of climate pressures. We are committed to helping our users design a better, more sustainable future. And we're confident that the collaborative nature of GIS will foster important connections among and within organizations. Partnerships and collaborations, such as the one between the United Nations (UN) and Esri around quantifying the UN’s Sustainable Introduction Creating the World We Want to See Development Goals (SDGs), can help everyone on the planet. Mobile field data applications, coupled with analytic capabilities, can support the ambitious goals of ending poverty and hunger and all the other important aims of a modern and inclusive society. GIS provides tools to better manage the natural environment and safeguard wild and biodiverse places. Many communities have gone too far in extracting resources to the detriment of species and ecosystems. Nature is inherently resilient though, and land managers have employed GIS to return vibrancy. GIS guides rewilding and rejuvenation programs that enhance habitat and return locally extinct species to reclaim balanced ecosystems. Humanitarian-aid organizations use GIS to address some of their most common challenges, such as helping where needs are the greatest and finding safe routes to deliver relief services. In public safety, GIS reveals where to focus efforts to prevent, protect against, and mitigate complex threats and hazards. With real-time data-driven insights aiding mission-critical decisions, responders can quickly recover from events and threats that pose the greatest risk of destabilizing communities. Geodesign provides a smart planning approach to designing with nature rather than against it. This powerful method has been used to create new developments that bring important amenities to communities, including enhanced proximity to nature and increased shade to combat climbing temperatures. GIS has been used to make communities more livable while reducing risks from more extreme storms due to climate change. The global GIS vision that was once imagined by pioneers of the technology has gradually come about through our collective work. When we all can see the benefits of our actions, we can accelerate changes to create a world we all want to see. Together, we can leave future generations with blueprints and solutions that create balance. We owe it to the planet, and all the species that live on it, to map the change we want to see. 3
4
5 Climate Action A geographic approach has helped revolutionize how communities adapt to climate impacts and mitigate damages by adopting resilience strategies. The Florida Division of Emergency Management (FDEM) has transformed its previous 500-page hazard mitigation plan into an engaging, interactive map-based experience. This innovation came about after the state surveyed counties and municipalities about the data and tools they needed. Local jurisdictions “told us they didn’t find the previous plan useful, which is a dagger to our heart for this huge five-year effort,” said Kristin Lentz, the mitigation planning manager at FDEM. To provide a more user-friendly and intuitive plan, Lentz and her team used GIS technology to analyze hazards, climate, and social vulnerability and incorporated digital maps into their planning. Local jurisdictions in Florida now have the data they need to devise effective mitigation strategies and employ techniques to improve resilience. Geospatial modeling provided a detailed picture of flood risks in Los Angeles. Researchers simulated flooding at much finer spatial resolution. This level of detail allowed them to create a more comprehensive and accurate flood risk map. Director of the Flood Lab at the University of California, Irvine, Brett Sanders, explained, “Existing models for doing accurate local inundation mapping in the past haven’t let modelers study a region the size of Los Angeles County at once at this resolution.” The researchers used the model to identify the populations facing the biggest flood risks. The Los Angeles Board of Supervisors were so impressed with the model and its consideration of vulnerable populations that they passed a new measure to consider equity for all flood mitigation projects. In Atlanta, the city has recognized that trees play an important role in making the city more livable as the weather heats up. Trees Atlanta, a nonprofit organization, is using GIS technology to record, map, and track its work in maintaining Atlanta’s 48 percent tree canopy coverage. This effort is crucial as Georgia faces the fastest urban tree loss in the nation. The data manager at Trees Atlanta, James Moy, highlighted how GIS technology has enhanced their capabilities, sharing how GIS “really expanded the possibilities for how we could record our planting locations, what kind of information we could record, and the quality of care we could give each tree.” Trees Atlanta has fostered a community-led tree-planting effort in places where they will be well received and cared for by the community. New York City officials are working on a revision to flood maps to include projections of how climate change will impact the city’s neighborhoods. The city is also using GIS technologies to provide residents with interactive maps that show current flood hazards and how they are likely to increase due to climate change. This is a part of the city’s efforts to fill in the public’s understanding of flood risk and guide infrastructure planning to reduce the impacts of climate-related hazards. To address rising air pollution, the US EPA and Forest Service have collaborated to create the AirNow Fire and Smoke Map, a mapping tool that combines official air quality data with readings from a network of low-cost sensors run by volunteers. This map aids Americans overall in understanding and planning around worsening air quality conditions. The map combines data from various sources, including official AirNow monitors, temporary monitors set up by state or federal agencies, and homemade air sensors run by members of the public. President Joe Biden has called the enhanced map “an important tool.” If we can better track the impacts of climate change and the solutions to combat it, we might be better at protecting our communities and our planet. Dynamic maps of changing conditions will encourage more people to participate.
In Florida, Interactive Maps Tell the Story of Modern Risk Mitigation Every US state has had to update its five-year hazard mitigation plan—now with priorities around community vulnerability and climate forecasts. Mitigation managers in Florida are meeting this Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) mandate in a new way, through interactive maps to make their plan more user-friendly. We met with local jurisdictions, and they told us they didn't find the previous plan useful, which is a dagger to our heart for this huge five-year effort. —Kristin Lentz, mitigation planning manager, Florida Division of Emergency Management or FDEM 6 Retirement communities dot the coasts of Florida, with many right on the water. This poses hazards from hurricanes, high tides, and sea level rise.
7 Climate Action So Lentz and her team at FDEM used GIS technology to build a more engaging experience. What was once a 500-page PDF is now a website with data-rich maps and insightful narratives. To meet FEMA’s directive by the August 2023 deadline, the FDEM team applied GIS analysis of hazards, climate, and social vulnerability. Then, to make the plan more intuitive, Lentz worked with Dan Rydl, GIS manager at FDEM, on incorporating digital maps. They built the site using ArcGIS® Hub to organize information and ArcGIS StoryMaps stories for narratives. They will continue to update the site’s open data and analytical guides for counties and municipalities. Mitigation Projects through a Lens of Vulnerability Hazard mitigation projects encompass retrofitting critical facilities such as schools and hospitals to better withstand hazards such as high winds, flooding, and extreme heat. The work entails hardening infrastructure such as electric and telecommunications networks to uphold power and internet connections. Other eligible projects include stormwater mitigation to increase drainage and, in some cases, elevating homes in areas that experience repeat flooding. After a major event, FDEM assesses damages to determine how mitigation projects reduced property loss and saved people from harm. “The loss avoidance reports help us with storytelling and getting buy-in for more projects,” Lentz said. “In mitigation, projects utilize effective resilience techniques to improve future outcomes, which can be highlighted through these reports.” In a similar way, FDEM uses maps to show communities in need of more help and areas where hazard risks are highest. “We mapped risks and hazards and draped social vulnerability on top of that,” Rydl said. “Almost everybody that looks at the hazard vulnerability map pauses and wants to talk about it because they understand hazard risk in a new way.” With more mapping, a more comprehensive picture of risk in Florida emerged. For instance, analysis of some natural hazards, such as extreme heat, revealed social vulnerability in the central spine of the state. “Diving deeper to ask, ‘Why is that?’ was helpful for us on the planning side,” Lentz said. “Regardless of the hazard, it opens your eyes to the more challenged and impoverished areas,” Rydl said. “People assume that the coast is the most vulnerable, but that’s not always the case.” Forecasting and Collaboration Make a Path Forward On the previous five-year plan, Rydl and the FDEM GIS team provided maps. This time, he taught Lentz and her mitigation planning team how to make maps. They met every week for two years. Rydl trained the team on GIS basics, and they applied the technology to all of FEMA’s requirements. Along the way, talents emerged on the combined GIS and planning teams. Some members were more comfortable making maps, others focused on narratives, and a few took on web development. “We picked up on that and built a really fun collaborative environment,” Rydl said. One area of focus was climate vulnerability. Florida currently feels increased impacts from more frequent and intense natural hazards. These hazards include wildfires, extreme heat, drought, storms, heavy precipitation, and sea level rise. The state sees more natural disasters than most, particularly during hurricane season, which runs June 1 through November 30. For 2023, forecasters expected less activity than normal for the first time in seven years, after an upward trend as extreme hurricanes were on the rise from 2018 to 2023. Hurricane Ian, which devastated southwest Florida in September 2022, is a sobering example. It caused $113 billion in damages and 152 deaths. A report from 2022 ranks it as the third-costliest storm in US history. Without existing measures to mitigate damage, it could have been worse. And the damage that was felt is now guiding further mitigation.
8 Although many states have considered climate forecasts in their hazard plans in the past, the FDEM team knows how tightly mitigation aligns with climate resilience. “We’ve done the research to understand impacts, but I think we can improve on visualizing what future conditions will look like here in Florida,” Lentz said. Rydl is looking into risk forecast models to understand what’s coming. Meanwhile, Lentz and her staff are on their way to becoming GIS experts. “I think the GIS team has become a little more mitigation-y, and I think mitigation got a little more GIS-y,” Rydl said. For 2023, the FDEM team was confident it had built a product that’s more useful to the counties and municipalities that design mitigation projects. “We created a tool that allows local jurisdictions to ask where dollars will best be spent,” Lentz said. “They can look at how successful projects are, but also at where they haven’t yet implemented mitigation.” Florida flood risk map from 2018 shows most of the state in a 100-year flood zone. The flood risk map in the 2023 report corrects mapping errors made previously, and shows FEMA special flood hazard areas.
9 Climate Action The bivariate risk map of Florida flood risk for the 2023 State Hazard Mitigation Plan relates the Social Vulnerability Index from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention overlaid with hazard risk to reveal where help is needed most. Zooming into Census Tract 124.10 in Polk County, Florida, the flood risk score of .68 and social vulnerability score of .65 place this tract at moderate to high vulnerability for both in the 100-Year Floodplain.
Mapping LA’s Flood Risk Reveals Hidden Harm in Vulnerable Communities In 2023, Californians endured a relentless barrage of atmospheric river systems, the massive volumes of water vapor that snake across the Pacific and unleash copious precipitation when they reach land. Tropical Storm Hilary drenched areas of Los Angeles with as much as six inches of rain in late August. Street flooding occurred downtown, and numerous roads were washed out in the surrounding mountains. The deluge boosted historically low water levels, ending the state’s severe drought. But the flooding and landslides that the systems bring severely test infrastructure and endanger lives and livelihoods, illustrating the many ways climate change increases risk to communities around the world. California’s “weather whiplash,” the rapid swings between dry and wet spells, is also worsening. Cities such as New York and Miami face risks from coastal and urban flooding, Brett Sanders, director of the University of California, Irvine, Flood Lab, standing in the LA River. 10
11 Climate Action but cities in California have compounding risks. They face increasing flood risks while also managing drought and wildfires. “You look back at the last few years in this state — it’s been fire to ice, and no warm bath in between,” Governor Gavin Newsom said during a news briefing on March 15, 2023, in Pajaro, the Monterey County town flooded by a levee breach. The flooding displaced hundreds of people in the primarily migrant town and raised concerns about crop yields in the agricultural region. If anyone has any doubt about Mother Nature and her fury—if anyone has any doubt about what this is all about in terms of what’s happening to the climate and the changes that we’re experiencing—come to the state of California. — Governor Gavin Newsom In California, as elsewhere, the challenge is compounded by a basic problem: inadequate understanding of flood risk. One study of flood exposure in Los Angeles that appeared in the journal ScienceAdvances in August 2022 suggests that the population exposed to dangerous flooding, or a flooding event with 1 percent annual probability, is between 10 and 40 times greater than US government maps show. The study, published in November 2023 in Nature Sustainability, estimates that 425,000 people and $36 billion of assets would be exposed to dangerous floods rising to a height over 30 cm within the 100-year flood zone. The study also shows that the current 1 percent annual probability flood cannot be contained by existing flood infrastructure such as levees. The numbers of at-risk Angelenos surprised even the researchers. “We double- and triple-checked our models and tried to figure out, Did we make a mistake?” said Brett Sanders, director of the Flood Lab at the University of California, Irvine. To make their estimates, Sanders and his colleagues used an innovative geospatial modeling approach specifically designed for high-performance computing, allowing them to achieve an unprecedented level of mapping detail. Initially, the researchers set out to learn which Angelenos face the biggest flood risks by combining new hazard maps with census data. As they expected, they found an inequality along socioeconomic lines, with the more disadvantaged half of the population shouldering 65 percent of the composite flood hazard. But the strongest disparity they found was racial. Although non-Hispanic White communities were disproportionately likely to suffer coastal flooding, Black, Hispanic, and Asian residents were 79 percent, 17 percent, and 11 percent more likely than White populations, respectively, to be exposed to dangerous flooding, particularly from river floods. The racial and economic disparities, previously unacknowledged in federal flood risk maps, are exacerbated by the fact that disadvantaged communities tend to receive less government support for flood risk reduction and disaster recovery compared with more affluent communities. Left unaddressed, these risks only grow, leaving communities not only unprepared but less capable of bouncing back after a storm, says Sanders. The six most expensive natural disasters in the world in modern history were all the result of tropical storms such as Hurricane Katrina. And years later, some communities are still recovering from previous disasters even as they try to prepare for future storms. “New Orleans tells the story of cities that don’t recover, neighborhoods that are forever changed after the flood, that don’t bounce back,” Sanders says.
12 The Importance of Up-to-Date, and Accurate, Maps In the US, the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) is designed to assist owners of property within the 100-year flood zone in rebuilding after a damaging flood. But the maps that FEMA uses for the program—and that many rely on to determine risks—aren’t required to include rainfall hazards, or the often-immense impervious surfaces of cities where rainfall runoff can’t be contained by street gutters. The FEMA maps also rely on hydrologic and hydraulic modeling (of flood peaks and channel capacity) that is often decades out of date, and out of step with dramatic changes to population and the urban landscape. This map visualizes a side-by-side comparison of the spatial distribution of flood depth (right panel) and the spatial distribution of population for non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, non-Hispanic Asian, and non-Hispanic White populations (left panel). Although the maps cover coastal and river flooding, Sanders said, “They don’t ask, ‘Well, if it rains really hard and the water hits the ground and runs into the streets and it can’t drain fast enough, where’s it going to pond, and who’s it going to flood?’” Even alternative efforts meant to improve on FEMA’s maps don’t properly estimate urban flood risks, says Sanders. Large-scale flood risk models used in nationwide studies offer relatively low accuracy in urban areas, since they typically lack data about urban drainage infrastructure and the condition of flood channels, levees, and dams. They also rely on geographic and computational grids that are too coarse to
13 Climate Action depict the complexities of flooding as runoff spreads across city landscapes. For their study of Los Angeles, Sanders and colleagues built a numerical model capable of simulating flooding at a spatial resolution of three meters across the nearly 7,000-squarekilometer area of greater Los Angeles. “Existing models for doing accurate local inundation mapping in the past haven’t let modelers study a region the size of Los Angeles County at once at this resolution,” he says. They began building their map with topographic data and digital elevation models (DEM) based on aerial lidar or photogrammetric surveys. “It’s fine enough that we can The Parallel Raster Inundation Model, or PRIMo, is designed for whole-city-scale hazard modeling. resolve a road and how low the road is and how much water might run down a road.” Still, the surface data misses all the complexity underground, such as pipes and culverts. Sanders and his colleagues turn to local governments for ancillary datasets, such as shapefiles for stormwater infrastructure and path lines for pipes. From there, they “hydrocondition” the data to represent the functional effects of the infrastructure on the map and simulate different kinds of floods. Running these simulations demands the supercomputing powers of parallel servers, but this introduces its own
14 shared data with stakeholders to get early input into the flood model. Sanders thinks the process can help deepen understanding and trust. “We know from experience that getting stakeholders involved early in a process is really important, so that when results are finally finalized, there’s more buy-in that this model has some validity and it’s sharing something that makes sense and is actionable,” Sanders said. The new maps are now helping improve flood understanding in vulnerable areas, such as along the LA River, and sparking fresh discussions about adaptation. The system can be updated to account for possible infrastructure projects, including new levees, channel widening, green infrastructure, and even changes to land-use and building codes. “We can run different scenarios like, Well, what if we widen the river? What if we raise levees? What if we invest in parks and green spaces? … Can we slow down the water before it gets to the river and capture it and store it? I think a lot of people would like to do that.” Addressing Heightened Risk Elsewhere Next, Sanders and his team want their model to be used by other US cities where flood risk remains undermapped, harnessing the power of big data, machine learning, and new aerial sensors. Better flood risk maps can help identify projects that will address inequities while reducing risks for everyone, bottlenecks. So the researchers developed a more efficient flood inundation model, the Parallel Raster Inundation Model, or PRIMo. Designed specifically for whole-city-scale hazard modeling, the model uses a new way to represent infrastructure, says Sanders, and “strikes a balance between the amount of detail you put into the model and your ability to model a large area.” Gathering Community Feedback Sanders and his team also held workshops with city agencies, environmental groups, and some of the community groups most likely to be impacted to hear Angelenos’ biggest flood concerns, from sea level rise to levee failures to heavy rain. Using ArcGIS technology and ArcGS StoryMaps developed by Jochen Schubert at the UCI Flood Lab, they The new model allows the UCI Flood Lab to test scenarios and show the effect of various mitigation measures.
15 and possibly addressing other risks, too. One example: Governor Newsom ordered the use of flood waters to fill aquifers, to battle the state’s ongoing drought. For climate adaptations, says Sanders, “you want to have something that’s good for water conservation and good for ecosystems and good for flood risk management and good for social equity.” The White House has also emphasized the need for better, more public climate risk mapping, especially as it prepares to distribute historic sums for local infrastructure projects. The Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) tool that was developed in 2022 uses maps and data from more than a dozen federal agencies to help communities better understand their risks and seek resources accordingly. Sanders hopes his team’s approach will eventually inform tools such as this, too, for instance, by helping FEMA improve its flood risk models. Already, the maps are leaving their mark on Los Angeles. Following the study’s publication in October 2022, the county Board of Supervisors passed a motion in December 2022 directing the city’s public works department to develop a plan to address flood risks and inequities, while improving the city’s water conservation and drought measures. It’s an “impact that you could only dream of,” says Sanders, “seeing your work immediately register with leaders who say we need to act on this problem.” The Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation tool combines extensive federal hazard data that can be used at national, regional, and local levels to monitor flooding conditions and explore trends. Climate Action
To Protect Trees, Atlanta Nonprofit Maps and Measures Benefits There’s a running joke that in Atlanta, all navigation prompts include “Peachtree Street,” because 71 roads all have some form of that name. But with the city’s tremendous growth—adding two million residents between 1996 and 2014—actual live trees were becoming a rarity in and around Atlanta. In the 1990s, 27 acres of tree canopy coverage per day were lost during the construction boom brought on by the 1996 Olympic Games. Trees Atlanta works to mitigate the city’s tree loss and increase downtown tree canopy through planting, education, and conservation. The nonprofit is a community of employees and volunteers who recognize the benefits of trees and green space. The efforts to revive Atlanta’s roots in nature put Trees Atlanta on the map for redefining what urban spaces can look like. The nonprofit uses GIS technology to record, map, and track its work to keep Atlanta green. Trees Atlanta has had success in safeguarding the reputation of Atlanta for being a “city in a forest,” with its 48 percent tree canopy coverage. But there’s an uphill battle statewide; the US Forest Service has singled out Georgia for the fastest urban tree loss in the nation. Growing from Paper-Based Maps to GIS Before implementing GIS, the Trees Atlanta team members could not gather a full picture of their work in specific neighborhoods or throughout the city. But now, from start 16 The Atlanta skyline from Piedmont Park puts the city's mature trees in proximity to towering skyscrapers.
17 to finish, the workflow of Trees Atlanta tracks the steps that accomplish its mission. Fifty employees and dozens of volunteers use GIS to log activities. “That really expanded the possibilities for how we could record our planting locations, what kind of information we could record, and the quality of care we could give each tree,” said James Moy, data manager for Trees Atlanta. Moy has trained his coworkers to use a suite of GIS products in their daily workflows. Coordinators use GIS maps to plan and prioritize planting projects. Places where trees are needed are scouted, and plans are shared with government officials and the surrounding community to gather feedback and gain approvals. Mobile workers use GIS apps to navigate and track where they need to prune and water trees as well as where to treat trees that may be infested with invasive pests. GIS data collection tools provide mobile workers a place to track their hours, and GIS dashboards show them the acres of trees they have conserved. Coordinators use the same maps to select appropriate species that fit the conditions of specific areas. Volunteers are given access to the maps so they know where to plant trees, and the system tracks where and when to maintain the trees until they reach maturity. Understanding that Community Conservation Begins with Education To date, Trees Atlanta has planted and cared for more than 150,000 trees. To choose sites, the organization uses maps to understand the socioeconomic conditions in neighborhoods and engages with community members to gain their support. “When you get into community forestry, you realize that humans are a part of the ecosystem, especially in an urban place,” Moy said. “The most important thing for choosing tree planting sites is whether they are going to be well received by the people.” Starting in 2020, the organization analyzed the factors leading to tree survival. Staff found that when an active community group participated in planting, trees flourished. About one-third of the tree planting sites are requested by community members. Another third of the sites are agreed on by the nonprofit’s employees and volunteers, who return to communities year after year, answering the question, “Where are we going next?” The final third are selected by coordinators who use spatial analysis and satellite imagery in GIS to determine where trees are needed most. Choosing the Right Tree for the Right Place Looks nice and growing well aren’t the only criteria for determining which trees get planted. Of the 7,000 trees planted in 2022, 83 percent were native species. More native species have been planted because the public has a greater interest in supporting plants that occur naturally in the region and adapt well to changes in climate. Trees Atlanta brings in information from the USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map to determine which trees have the most Climate Action The Tree Benefit Dashboard displays Atlanta’s 244 neighborhoods as well as the benefits of their tree canopy, which includes decreases in carbon emissions, annual stormwater runoff, and air pollution.
18 adaptability. “We’re looking more into native adaptive trees that have evolved in a slightly warmer climate farther south from Atlanta, with warmer winters and hotter summers,” Moy said. The trees planted early in the organization’s history are now becoming mature, and communities are seeing the benefits. “Those mature trees provide a lot of shade, and that turns into better health outcomes. We’ve also seen animals moving back to places where they haven’t been seen in a long time,” Moy said. Part of the data-validation process used for the 2018 tree canopy update involves field verification of changes since 2008. As far as beneficial health impacts, a Clemson University study of a region in Northern California found that annual average health-care costs were $374 lower for those living near green space. Filling in Food Deserts In addition to health benefits, trees provide food beyond that of the ubiquitous peach tree. Trees Atlanta was instrumental in the creation of the Urban Food Forest at Browns Mill, the country’s largest edible-foods forest on public land, with 7.1 acres of land ripe with 2,500 pesticide-free edible and medicinal plants.
19 Food from the forest is grown under a model of agroforestry, a method of growing trees and shrubs to provide nourishment and an ecologically resilient landscape. Ten minutes away from Atlanta’s bustling airport, the expansive forest was once a small family farm. But unrealized property development brought blight and neglect to the Lakewood and Browns Mill neighborhoods, where many residents live in poverty and the closest grocery store is a 30-minute bus ride away. “The Urban Food Forest at Browns Mill is a resource that anyone can use to enjoy green space, harvest food that was collectively grown by the community, and learn techniques to grow food,” Moy said. “The forest demonstrates practices of permaculture to mimic the growing practices of Indigenous peoples.” Protecting the Future of Green Space Since 2001, Atlanta’s Tree Protection Ordinance has been a critical tool to preserve the city’s tree canopy. But the ordinance hasn’t been enough to protect trees against a Climate Action wave of development. To remove a tree, a permit needs to be approved by the city, but illegal removal still occurs, creating threatening conditions for the oldest trees. Trees Atlanta has been working with the Georgia Institute of Technology on tree canopy assessments to continue to innovate and find ways to maintain Atlanta’s status as a “city in a forest.” Analysis of the benefits of the forest is guiding decisionmaking as the climate continues to change. Atlanta mayor Andre Dickens, elected in November 2021, is committed to the city’s trees, and he ties tree canopy protection directly to climate change impacts in his environmental and clean energy plan. In response to a question about rising temperatures in the city, Dickens replied, “The reduction of the tree canopy only enhances the urban heat island effect and the rising energy costs that make it more expensive to keep our homes cool. The first effort from the City of Atlanta needs to be in the protection of our tree canopy.” Trees Atlanta has planted and cared for more than 150,000 trees, which are shown on this tree inventory map.
NYC: Few Cities Are Doing More to Map and Respond to Rising Waters New Yorkers are tough, but they’re no match for an everweirder, ever-fiercer climate. It took only 48 hours for Hurricane Sandy to overwhelm coastal neighborhoods, killing 44 people, damaging or destroying 70,000 housing units, and leaving behind $19 billion in damages. The ferocious remnants of Hurricane Ida dropped more than three inches of rain in an hour, submerging streets and subways, and killing 11 people in flooded basement apartments. These impacts underscore the growing threat that climate change poses to cities such as New York, especially to their most vulnerable residents. In the US, 90 percent of natural disasters involve a flood, according to FEMA, making flooding the most frequent and the most expensive natural disaster in the country. Estimates suggest that by the 2050s, sea level rise and inland floods could impact 1 of every 10 people on Earth and cost cities more than $1 trillion. Now, as the US federal government engages in a historic nationwide infrastructure buildout, researchers, nonprofit organizations, and GIS specialists are harnessing new technology to improve understanding of where flooding is likely and to better rank investments in resiliency. These include advances in real-time flood sensor systems, sophisticated hydrological models, and high-resolution satellite monitoring. In New York City, officials are preparing a decades-in-themaking revision to federal flood maps that will, for the first time, include projections that show how climate change will impact the city’s neighborhoods. Mapping Risks and Vulnerability Communities across the US need better risk mapping. The White House recognized this need and created the Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation, or CMRA, tool in 2022 to surface projected exposure to climate hazards. Similarly, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 20 This waterfront view of the Brooklyn Bridge during a storm is a reminder of the widespread flooding there during Hurricane Sandy in 2012.
21 Climate Action created the Digital Coast Mapper to aggregate a range of data—on coastal flooding, storm surge, and long-range inundation impacts—using a method of visualizing climate risk that was initially developed for New York in the wake of Hurricane Sandy. Anywhere along the New York waterfront ranks high for flood risk, and nearly 1.5 million New Yorkers live in the federally designated 100-year floodplain, threatened by once-in-ahundred-year extreme storms. Maintained by FEMA as part of the National Flood Insurance Program, or NFIP, floodplain maps are meant to define mortgage risks, set insurance rates, and establish building and land-use regulations. But in New York and elsewhere, the actual risks of floods and storms reach farther than most people think, and farther than the prevailing federal flood maps have described. In a study published in February 2023 in the journal Nature Climate Change, researchers found that on federal maps, the underestimations of flood risks missed about eight million homes and overvalued the housing market by about $200 billion. The analysis, by researchers from the Environmental Defense Fund and the nonprofit organizations Resources for the Future and the First Street Foundation, found that many overvalued properties are concentrated in coastal counties with no flood-risk disclosure laws and where there is less concern about climate change. The unpriced flood risks endanger the stability of the housing market, local governments, and homeowners, particularly in low-income areas. The old floodplain maps don’t account for sea level rise, rainfall, or riverine flooding, and they can be hampered by outdated data and models. They can also create a false sense of security, by focusing on whether a property is inside or outside of a floodplain, without addressing risk to individual properties. And FEMA hasn’t significantly updated many of its maps for decades. In cities such as New York, billions of dollars in property values and government revenue are at stake, to say nothing of lives and livelihoods. By the year 2050, according to a report published by the city’s comptroller in October 2022, rising tides and more frequent storms will put significant essential infrastructure and properties amounting to upward of $242 billion in current market value at risk of coastal flooding. Sobering Statistics The consequences of geospatial data gaps can be devastating. When Hurricane Harvey dumped up to 47 inches of rain in Harris County, Texas, in 2017, more than two-thirds of the homes that flooded were outside FEMA’s Special Flood Hazard Area, which designates areas where flood insurance coverage is mandatory. This means that most of those homeowners were uninsured or heavily underinsured. New maps, delayed again in September 2023, will likely show Harris County’s 100-year floodplain growing from around 150,000 acres to 200,000 acres. The maps, built in consultation with the county, will be FEMA’s first to depict urban flooding and will incorporate new rainfall estimates from NOAA, data that had not been updated since the 1960s. NOAA created the Coastal Flood Exposure Mapper to help communities kick-start conversations about coastal risks. The mapper enables users to explore maps that show people, places, and natural resources exposed to coastal flood hazards.
22 impacting thousands of residents currently unaddressed in the federal data. A 2022 report by the city’s comptroller found that by then, rising tides and more frequent storms will put upward of $242 billion in property value at risk of coastal flooding, a 38 percent increase from today. The new maps from the city and FEMA have been promised in 2023 and 2024, respectively. When they are put in place, the city, and its residents, will still face challenges. The city anticipates thousands more residents will be required to pay for flood insurance, a burden many will undoubtedly struggle to meet. Updates to the city’s building code will likely increase costs for developers in flood-prone areas. And many New Yorkers may not see the maps: A state law, which passed in 2022, finally mandates that landlords warn renters about flood risk before they put down a deposit, but the law doesn’t extend the same protection to buyers. In the meantime, ahead of the new maps becoming available, the city has been finding other ways to fill in the public’s understanding of flood risk. The Department of City Planning made an interactive map that lets residents see current flood hazards as well as how they are likely to increase with climate change. In 2022, the mayor’s office released a map New Yorkers can use to check their future risk from flashfloods during a moderate event (a storm with two inches of rain an hour) as well as during an extreme stormwater flood, given expected rises in sea level by 2050 (2.5 feet) and 2080 (4.8 feet). New York City is already using its new flood risk projections for its climate resilience design guidelines, which inform development as well as the planning of infrastructure projects aimed at reducing the impacts of climate-related hazards. To help residents and officials track the progress of the mitigation projects, the city’s Office of Emergency Management is mapping them. And the Department of Environmental Protection built an ArcGIS StoryMaps story in September 2021 to illustrate the city’s stormwater resiliency plan, which involves finding ways to make the Big Apple more “spongy.” Still, although the analysis includes data up to 2017, it will not consider projections for how climate change will impact future storms. “One of the fatal flaws of FEMA flood maps is that they are largely backward-looking,” Rob Moore, director of the Natural Resources Defense Council’s water and climate team, told the Houston Chronicle last month. “The only place I’m aware of where they’re attempting to include future conditions in flood maps is New York City.” When Hurricane Sandy devastated parts of New York in 2012, city residents were relying on FEMA flood-risk maps that hadn’t been significantly updated since 1983. In 2016, after a city review found errors with FEMA’s maps, the agency and the city agreed to work on a new map. The delayed FEMA flood-risk map that was promised in 2023 will factor future flood risk, based in part on maps made by the city’s panel on climate change that use a projection of 30 inches of sea level rise by 2050. According to a separate analysis by First Street, New Yorkers can expect a 20 percent increase in flood risk by the year 2050, The Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation tool combines extensive federal hazard data that can be used at national, regional, and local levels to monitor flooding conditions and explore trends.
www.esri.comRkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy MjA2NTE0Mw==